non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma Pipeline Licensing Analysis

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Project ThumbNHL Pipeline Licensing Analysis
Clients:
Top 25 Brand Drug Company
Description:

A top 25 firm seeking to expand beyond its aging portfolio of chemical primary care drugs hired VOI to conduct an extensive market and product assessment of a biologic under study for non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma.

This project required thorough analysis of the clinical, regulatory, and market dynamics associated with the development, approval, and commercialization of NHL therapies at present and over a 15-year horizon. Extensive secondary research and more than a dozen interviews with category-leading KOLs and investigators formed the basis of this market research effort.

Following the market research phase, VOI created detailed and flexible profit and loss forecasts from time of acquisition, through clinical trials, commercialization, and eventual loss of exclusivity. These forecasts encompassed each of the leading product profile options identified by market research and incorporated associated time-to-market, development and manufacturing costs, and sales/marketing expenses along with analysis of key assumptions, upside/downside risks, and probability of technical and regulatory success. In combination with the findings from the market research phase, these forecasts served as the basis for recommendations regarding a go/no-go decision on the acquisition and subsequent development options for the biologic.

Results:

Our analysis showed that, despite promising early phase data and a number of vocal KOL champions, the product was insufficiently distinct from either existing or more advanced pipeline therapies to achieve the desired sales levels. In short, the asset was judged to be a classic me-too product in an increasingly crowded field. Our client followed VOI’s recommendation to pass on this particular licensing deal.

Categories:

Biologics, brand drug development, investments, valuation, forecasting, modeling, KOL research.

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