VOI News

New Study on Time-to-Peak Sales for US Pharmaceuticals

Drug launch curves in the modern era, a new article in the January 2017 issue of Nature Reviews: Drug Discovery, contains projections of relevance for forecasting pharmaceutical sales in the US market. Relying on unit sales for 61 innovative drugs receiving FDA approval between 2000 and 2002, the authors determined that the median product follows an S-shaped launch-to-peak penetration curve: achieving 11% of peak sales in Year 1, 31% in Year 2, 58% in Year 3, 76% in Year 4, 89% in Year 5, and 100% (i.e. peak sales) in Year 6. On an interquartile basis, time-to-peak (TTP) ranged from 4 to 9 years; the minimum TTP was 2 years and the maximum was 14.

Using data from the Supplemental Materials file we find that the average for TTP for first-in-class drugs is 5.65 years as opposed to 6.93 years for subsequent entrants. Unlike other research on the subject, however, the authors did not that there was a statistically significant relationship between entry order and TTP. But, as they note, TTP is distinct from factors such as market share and revenue potential that may be more indicative of first-mover advantage.

US pharma market growth fueled by a small number of products (again)

A year ago, we looked at data from IMS Health showing how specialty drugs were boosting the fortunes of an industry still reeling from the body-blows of high-dollar patent expirations in preceding years. The figures were encouraging from a top-level view, but the reliance on a handful of products with questionable growth potential (Hep C treatments) left us asking if this was sustainable.

That question is still on our minds. Of course, no one thought last year’s results were a complete aberration, and the new report from IMS shows the trend continues in a healthy fashion (free download with registration). Total US drug spending grew 12.2% to $424.8 billion. The increase in the specialty drug sector was nearly twice that – 21.5% -- and, at $150.8 billion, the category now accounts for more than a third of all domestic drug spending and three-fourths of new brand drug spending. Given that this category has gone from 24% of the market to 36% in just three years, and account for 70% of spending growth over that period, IMS is right, if a bit understated, to call it “one of the most dynamic segments.”

Like last year, Hepatitis C and oncology lead the way. Along with autoimmune treatments, these products account for $19.3 billion of the overall $46.2 billion rise seen by the industry as a whole – with $6.6 billion of the increase coming from Hep C alone. By comparison, spending on oncology treatments as a whole increased by $6 billion, led by new offerings in the form of PD-1 and protein kinase inhibitors.

There are signs that the Hep C wave is cresting, however. As the authors of the IMS report state that “new therapy starts peaked in March 2015 and have started to slow as the majority of patients most in need have sought and received treatment.”

For now, we stand by our statement from a year ago, when we cautioned that the top-line figures did not necessarily herald a new Golden Age for pharma. As we stated then, “these phenomenal revenue figures are really derived from a handful of extremely successful drugs rather than a broad-based industry turnaround.”

Specialty drugs drive outsized U.S. pharma growth – but is it sustainable?

Not long ago, gloom and doom was predicted for the pharma industry as blockbuster drugs ran out of patent protection, taking their historic profits with them. The patent cliff, a several-year span in which Lipitor, Diovan, Singulair, Plavix, Lovenox, Nexium, and Cymbalta (just to name a few) faced generic competition with limited options for replacement in the pipeline, was seen as heralding a period of long-term difficulty for innovative drug makers.

Based on information from IMS Health’s newly published Medicine Use and Spending Shifts: A Review of the Use of Medicines in the U.S. in 2014, however, it may be time to change the tune. Domestic drug spending last year reached $374 billion, exceeding forecasts and achieving the highest annual increase (13.1%) since the early 2000s. While fewer patent expirations and an increase in brand prices get some of the credit for the upswing, the real growth driver was specialty drugs.

Of the $20.2 billion increase in spending on new brands, 78% was from this category, defined by IMS as “products that are often injectable, high-cost, biologics or require cold-chain distribution … are mostly used by specialists … and include treatment for cancer and other serious chronic conditions. “ More than half of the new brand sales growth ($11.3 billion) comes from recent launches of new hepatitis C drugs while new cancer and multiple sclerosis medicines were respectively responsible for $1.6 billion and $2.0 billion. Overall, according to IMS, the $54 billion in increased specialty medicine spending over the last five years makes up 73% of  growth across all categories in that period.

These trends have given specialty drugs a firm foothold in the market, making up 33% of all drug spending last year. And it looks like this will continue for the next few years, as 42% of late-stage-pipeline drugs are currently in this category.

Bright and shiny topline growth numbers aren’t everything though: at some point, we’ll get around to posting an analysis of how these phenomenal revenue figures are really derived from a handful of extremely successful drugs rather than a broad-based industry turnaround. The plateau in drug utilization, which we evaluated in-depth in a 2013 whitepaper, provides further reason for skepticism regarding the sustainability of the current rally.

It has also been said that everything carries within itself the seeds of its own destruction – this was true in the late 1990s/early 2000s when the last period of outsized growth was eventually contained through Paragraph IV challenges, higher copays, aggressive formulary management, and pro-generic policies. Considering that specialty drug prices have already sparked backlash among physicians and pharmacy benefits managers and that we’ve just recently seen the advent of biosimilars which promise to exert pricing pressure on biologics, it is not too difficult to predict that counterforces will eventually curtail the latest round of growth as well.